Formula · n ≈ ln(0.5) / ln(1 − p)
50 / 90 Threshold Calculator
Enter any drop rate and we'll return the packs, tokens and 99% benchmark you need to plan a chase. Budget for the worst case, not the average.
The rule in one line
Every chase is really just two numbers: the packs to 50% chance, and the packs to 90%. Below that is the 99% extreme; use it to plan a budget that survives a bad run.
Longer explainer →50 / 90 rule
%
Packs → 50%
3,466
69,320
Packs → 90%
11,512
230,240
After 100 packs
1.98%
chance
Reference table
Canonical rates, pre-computed.
Flagship chases
Know the number before you start.
Related tools