Formula · 1 − (1 − p)ⁿ
Chance Calculator
Pick a flagship chase or enter your own rate. Cumulative probability, not averages; the same math the drop rates actually live in.
Rainbow Panda chase calculator
Safari Pack · 0.02% drop rate
500 packs ≈ 10,000 tokens.
Your chance after 500 packs
9.52%
→ 50%
3,466
packs
→ 90%
11,512
packs
Tokens → 50%
69,320
🪙
Tokens → 90%
230,240
🪙
50 / 90 rule
%
Packs → 50%
231
4,620
Packs → 90%
767
15,340
After 100 packs
25.95%
chance
Flagship chases
Three canonical rates. Plug in, play out.
Rainbow Panda chase calculator
Safari Pack · 0.02% drop rate
500 packs ≈ 10,000 tokens.
Your chance after 500 packs
9.52%
→ 50%
3,466
packs
→ 90%
11,512
packs
Tokens → 50%
69,320
🪙
Tokens → 90%
230,240
🪙
King of Hearts chase calculator
Wonderland Pack · 0.30% drop rate
500 packs ≈ 10,000 tokens.
Your chance after 500 packs
77.74%
→ 50%
231
packs
→ 90%
767
packs
Tokens → 50%
4,620
🪙
Tokens → 90%
15,340
🪙
Mega Bot chase calculator
Bot Pack · 0.03% drop rate
500 packs ≈ 10,000 tokens.
Your chance after 500 packs
13.93%
→ 50%
2,311
packs
→ 90%
7,675
packs
Tokens → 50%
46,220
🪙
Tokens → 90%
153,500
🪙
Why cumulative, not average
A 0.3% rate doesn't mean “1 in 333 is the magic number.”
Expected value tells you how many drops to average across infinite packs. It says nothing about the chance of seeing your target. At 0.3%, 333 packs puts you at ~63%, not guaranteed, not the median. Even 990 packs (3× average) only gets you to ~95%.
50 / 90 threshold calculator →Related tools